Mini Math
January 24, 2005 @ 10:39 AMSo I wandered on over the the Online Apple Store today, and checked out their Top Sellers list. The first thing you notice is that the iPod shuffle is the #1 seller. yawn Pretty much everyone knew it was going to be, except for Creative Technology CEO Sim Wong Hoo ("... I think the whole industry will just laugh at [the iPod shuffle]."), backed by a small and dying crowd of people who buy something other than an iPod just to spite Apple.
What’s REALLY interesting is what is occupying spot #4 compared to spot #5. Apple’s new Mac Mini is actually outselling the iPod. Now, let’s think about that for a moment. Last quarter, Apple sold 4.5 million iPods. Analysts have been calling for another 3-4 million iPods sold this quarter. I’m going to make a series of fuzzy-math calculations, but if you follow closely you’ll see I’m being very conservative in my estimates. Okay, so let’s assume that Apple IS on track to sell 2.5-3 million iPods. Let’s also assume that Apple’s iPod Mini-to-iPod ratio is 1:1 (we don’t actually know, but at the moment iPods are outselling iPod minis). That says that Apple will be on track to sell roughly 1-1.5 million iPods (not including iPod mini). Now, factor in the fact that the Mac Mini is currently selling BETTER than the iPod. That means that if the rate of sales holds, Apple will sell over 1,000,000 Mac Minis. (It’s worth noting that most people do not believe Apple is capable of producing that many Mac Minis a quarter). given the fact that Apple tends to sell some 500,000ish computers a quarter, and factoring in the possibility that the Mac Mini will canabolize some of the other designs, that means that Apple could potentially increase their marketshare for the next quarter to up over 6%.
A LOT can happen before the end of the quarter. I’m merely trying to point out that they’re off to an amazing start.